Closing spread
NE -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
-3.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Patriots
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.070EPA / play-0.072
- 48.6%Success rate42.1%
- +0.133EPA / dropback-0.066
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.084
- 11.1%Explosive rate8.7%
- +2.93CPOE-7.25
- 45.5%Third-down rate37.8%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 2.41Points / drive1.70
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 22-32-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/30 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 1 |
| James White | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/33 | 210 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Berrios | 7 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 4 | 8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.1%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.68
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.98