2021 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

25·6

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 72°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

NE -5.5

Total

43

Model margin

-3.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Patriots

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Patriots

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsPatriots wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Patriotsedge mapJets
  • +0.070EPA / play-0.072
  • 48.6%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback-0.066
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.084
  • 11.1%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +2.93CPOE-7.25
  • 45.5%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 2.41Points / drive1.70
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NYJ are 23-32-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNE–NYJ
NEQ1 15:001020Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:2828Turnover0–0
NEQ1 7:45512Field goal3–0
NYJQ1 4:46213Turnover3–0
NEQ1 4:10768Touchdown10–0
NYJQ1 0:571059Field goal10–3
NEQ2 9:523-14Punt10–3
NYJQ2 7:54423Turnover10–3
NEQ2 5:50425Punt10–3
NYJQ2 4:02415Punt10–3
NEQ2 2:09948Field goal13–3
NYJQ2 0:1300End of half13–3
NYJQ3 15:00822Turnover13–3
NEQ3 11:15235Touchdown19–3
NYJQ3 10:241036Missed field goal19–3
NEQ3 4:40753Field goal22–3
NYJQ3 1:09932Turnover on downs22–3
NEQ4 12:4230Punt22–3
NYJQ4 11:121166Field goal22–6
NEQ4 6:1131Punt22–6
NYJQ4 5:1148Turnover on downs22–6
NEQ4 4:31612Field goal25–6
NYJQ4 1:57855End of half25–6

Box score

Individual performances

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones22/3018600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris16623.91
James White5204.01
Kendrick Bourne11616.00
J.J. Taylor231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James White66450
Hunter Henry24420
Jakobi Meyers46380
Jonnu Smith45280
Nelson Agholor33210
Kendrick Bourne23100
Damien Harris1120

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/3321004

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter11595.40
Ty Johnson12504.20
Tevin Coleman5244.80
Zach Wilson3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Braxton Berrios711730
Elijah Moore48470
Jeff Smith12350
Michael Carter23290
Ryan Griffin22100
Tyler Kroft1280
Corey Davis2580

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Patriots.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.1%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.98