Closing spread
NO -3
Total
45
Model margin
-4.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.132
- 41.1%Success rate41.2%
- +0.003EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -5.00CPOE-7.50
- 36.1%Third-down rate36.1%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.43
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 11/22 | 111 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 8 | 5 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 26/38 | 305 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 24 | 72 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 8 | 11 | 79 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 3 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon Zylstra | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.2%
Expected total
40.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.10