2021 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

7·26

Panthers

Carolina

QB Sam Darnold

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

45

Model margin

-4.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.132
  • 41.1%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.003EPA / dropback-0.158
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -5.00CPOE-7.50
  • 36.1%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.43
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
CARQ1 15:00575Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 12:0049Punt0–7
CARQ1 9:56735Punt0–7
NOQ1 6:4836Punt0–7
CARQ1 5:081574Field goal0–10
NOQ2 11:11519Punt0–10
CARQ2 7:251068Touchdown0–17
NOQ2 1:55631Turnover0–17
CARQ2 0:23323End of half0–17
NOQ3 15:0030Punt0–17
CARQ3 13:22930Missed field goal0–17
NOQ3 8:2758Turnover on downs0–17
CARQ3 5:2539Punt0–17
NOQ3 3:5939Punt0–17
CARQ3 1:4210Turnover0–17
NOQ3 1:34518Touchdown7–17
CARQ4 14:37719Punt7–17
NOQ4 9:4236Punt7–17
CARQ4 8:42838Touchdown7–23
NOQ4 5:5340Turnover on downs7–23
CARQ4 4:2838Field goal7–26
NOQ4 3:21223Turnover7–26
CARQ4 2:3654Punt7–26
NOQ4 0:2200End of half7–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston11/2211102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jameis Winston3196.31
Taysom Hill2168.00
Tony Jones372.30
Alvin Kamara850.60
Deonte Harty111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Lil'Jordan Humphrey12270
Alvin Kamara46250
Juwan Johnson13230
Chris Hogan13160
Deonte Harty1290
Marquez Callaway2480
Ty Montgomery1130

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold26/3830521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey24723.01
Chuba Hubbard8101.30
Sam Darnold177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore811791
Christian McCaffrey56650
Dan Arnold34550
Brandon Zylstra33441
Robbie Chosen36380
Terrace Marshall Jr.33170
Ian Thomas1270
Chuba Hubbard0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.6%3.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

38.2%

Expected total

40.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.10