Closing spread
KC -6.5
Total
55
Model margin
+2.3est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.140
- 47.4%Success rate51.1%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.024
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.71CPOE+2.81
- 45.7%Third-down rate52.1%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 2.55Points / drive2.66
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 26/38 | 281 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 9 | 122 | 2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 8 | 12 | 50 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 27/44 | 260 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 17 | 100 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 11 | 104 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 3 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 2 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Joseph Fortson | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.34