2021 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

30·24

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

KC -6.5

Total

55

Model margin

+2.3est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapChiefs
  • +0.088EPA / play+0.140
  • 47.4%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.024
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.71CPOE+2.81
  • 45.7%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 2.55Points / drive2.66
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–KC
LACQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
KCQ1 12:471063Turnover0–0
LACQ1 8:16623Punt0–0
KCQ1 5:36631Turnover0–0
LACQ1 2:48951Touchdown6–0
KCQ2 13:57642Turnover6–0
LACQ2 10:55653Touchdown14–0
KCQ2 7:363-4Punt14–0
LACQ2 5:34623Punt14–0
KCQ2 2:331075Field goal14–3
LACQ2 0:1900End of half14–3
KCQ3 15:001370Touchdown14–10
LACQ3 9:153-1Punt14–10
KCQ3 7:441165Touchdown14–17
LACQ3 3:351175Touchdown21–17
KCQ4 13:391272Touchdown21–24
LACQ4 6:431175Field goal24–24
KCQ4 2:1432Turnover24–24
LACQ4 1:42949Touchdown30–24
KCQ4 0:32521End of half30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert26/3828140

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler11555.00
Justin Herbert4164.00
Jalen Guyton133.00
Larry Rountree III430.80
Justin Jackson200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams791222
Austin Ekeler66521
Keenan Allen812501
Jared Cook23270
Donald Parham11190
Jalen Guyton0100
Larry Rountree III0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes27/4426032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clyde Edwards-Helaire171005.90
Patrick Mahomes44511.30
Darrel Williams7284.00
Tyreek Hill11111.00
Mecole Hardman122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce7111040
Tyreek Hill57560
Mecole Hardman34331
Demarcus Robinson22170
Byron Pringle26120
Darrel Williams23110
Clyde Edwards-Helaire2291
Joseph Fortson2271
Blake Bell1160
Noah Gray1150
Marcus Kemp0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.34