Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play+0.084
- 46.4%Success rate46.8%
- +0.091EPA / dropback+0.168
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.39CPOE+1.99
- 45.5%Third-down rate43.7%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 2.39Points / drive2.44
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 25/39 | 326 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 4 | 66 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Jalen Reagor | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/26 | 238 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 11 | 60 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 9 | 6 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz | 6 | 7 | 80 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 3 | 3 | 66 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 2 | 4 | 17 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22