2021 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

21·41

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · open · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • +0.061EPA / play+0.084
  • 46.4%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback+0.168
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.39CPOE+1.99
  • 45.5%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.44
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
DALQ1 15:00675Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 11:47343Turnover0–7
DALQ1 10:412-1Opp touchdown7–7
DALQ1 9:571353Turnover on downs7–7
PHIQ1 5:4335Punt7–7
DALQ1 4:37655Touchdown7–14
PHIQ1 1:3137Punt7–14
DALQ2 15:001580Touchdown7–20
PHIQ2 7:10429Punt7–20
DALQ2 5:0030Punt7–20
PHIQ2 3:57637Punt7–20
DALQ2 0:1100End of half7–20
PHIQ3 15:00328Opp touchdown7–27
PHIQ3 14:0734Punt7–27
DALQ3 12:45310Punt7–27
PHIQ3 11:03895Touchdown14–27
DALQ3 7:08624Punt14–27
PHIQ3 4:0244Punt14–27
DALQ3 2:381356Touchdown14–34
PHIQ4 11:26811Turnover on downs14–34
DALQ4 8:16331Touchdown14–41
PHIQ4 6:56995Touchdown21–41
DALQ4 3:0930Punt21–41
PHIQ4 1:3849Turnover on downs21–41
DALQ4 0:4600End of half21–41

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts25/3932622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts9353.90
Miles Sanders22713.50
Kenny Gainwell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert24660
Zach Ertz47531
Jalen Reagor58530
Quez Watkins22460
Kenny Gainwell34320
Miles Sanders34280
DeVonta Smith36280
Greg Ward11151
Boston Scott2250

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/2623830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott17955.62
Tony Pollard11605.50
Dak Prescott960.70
Corey Clement300.00
CeeDee Lamb1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz67802
CeeDee Lamb33660
Amari Cooper34260
Ezekiel Elliott33210
Cedrick Wilson Jr.24171
Blake Jarwin22140
Noah Brown1190
Tony Pollard1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.22