Closing spread
LA -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.042
- 46.6%Success rate43.8%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.089EPA / rush+0.026
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -0.40CPOE+4.08
- 42.6%Third-down rate37.3%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.32Points / drive2.12
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/37 | 365 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 17 | 82 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 12 | 14 | 150 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 3 | 68 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 14 | 1 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 11/16 | 152 | 1 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 10/17 | 131 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 15 | 47 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 5 | 98 | 2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.86