Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.079
- 45.5%Success rate46.8%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.154
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.037
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.73CPOE+4.19
- 40.6%Third-down rate45.2%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.30Points / drive2.37
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 15/29 | 192 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Lance | 16 | 89 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 |
| Trey Sermon | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 3 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 22/31 | 239 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| James Conner | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Chase Edmonds | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 9 | 87 | 1 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| James Conner | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.70
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.40