2021 · Week 5 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Trey Lance

10·17

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.079
  • 45.5%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.037
  • 10.9%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.73CPOE+4.19
  • 40.6%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.37
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
SFQ1 15:00430Turnover0–0
ARIQ1 12:46866Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 9:02820Turnover on downs0–7
ARIQ1 4:4535Punt0–7
SFQ1 2:241393Turnover on downs0–7
ARIQ2 11:261483Field goal0–10
SFQ2 5:273-1Punt0–10
ARIQ2 3:441032Missed field goal0–10
ARIQ3 15:00313Punt0–10
SFQ3 13:501348Punt0–10
ARIQ3 6:2035Punt0–10
SFQ3 5:10759Touchdown7–10
ARIQ3 1:42625Punt7–10
SFQ4 14:11837Turnover on downs7–10
ARIQ4 9:1825Turnover7–10
SFQ4 8:3946Turnover on downs7–10
ARIQ4 7:49552Touchdown7–17
SFQ4 5:13546Field goal10–17
ARIQ4 4:12425End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trey Lance15/2919201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Lance16895.60
Elijah Mitchell9434.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.11313.01
Trey Sermon177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.39580
Brandon Aiyuk24320
Ross Dwelley22250
Mohamed Sanu23190
Elijah Mitchell22190
Charlie Woerner1140
Travis Benjamin0300

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray22/3123910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rondale Moore33812.70
James Conner10292.91
Chase Edmonds6152.50
Christian Kirk11111.00
Kyler Murray710.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins69871
Rondale Moore56590
Christian Kirk55390
Chase Edmonds34190
Maxx Williams11140
A.J. Green12130
James Conner1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.70
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.40