2021 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

34·24

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 76°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

DEN -5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBroncos
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.021
  • 45.2%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +1.92CPOE+2.34
  • 36.8%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.89
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–DEN
LVQ1 15:00770Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 11:54964Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 6:49743Field goal10–7
DENQ1 2:40519Turnover10–7
LVQ1 0:24519Missed field goal10–7
DENQ2 13:1135Punt10–7
LVQ2 11:39419Punt10–7
DENQ2 10:11922Punt10–7
LVQ2 4:31414Punt10–7
DENQ2 2:36736Punt10–7
LVQ2 1:01582Touchdown17–7
DENQ2 0:301-8End of half17–7
DENQ3 15:0054Punt17–7
LVQ3 13:20456Touchdown24–7
DENQ3 11:27864Field goal24–10
LVQ3 6:3838Punt24–10
DENQ3 5:06627Turnover24–10
LVQ3 2:19544Touchdown31–10
DENQ3 0:071290Touchdown31–17
LVQ4 11:16668Field goal34–17
DENQ4 7:57412Turnover34–17
LVQ4 6:4844Punt34–17
DENQ4 4:03886Touchdown34–24
LVQ4 1:1200Turnover34–24
DENQ4 1:1040Turnover34–24
LVQ4 0:2400End of half34–24

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr18/2734120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs16533.31
Kenyan Drake4348.51
Jalen Richard100.00
Derek Carr2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Henry Ruggs III34971
Bryan Edwards24670
Darren Waller55590
Kenyan Drake22391
Hunter Renfrow35360
Josh Jacobs11290
Foster Moreau11110
Jalen Richard1130
Willie Snead0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater35/4933433

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams11534.80
Melvin Gordon10505.00
Teddy Bridgewater294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant911971
Courtland Sutton814941
Tim Patrick36421
Kendall Hinton55370
Melvin Gordon33230
Eric Saubert35230
Javonte Williams33150
Mike Boone1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.43