Closing spread
DEN -5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.021
- 45.2%Success rate44.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.1%
- +1.92CPOE+2.34
- 36.8%Third-down rate38.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.89
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 18/27 | 341 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 1 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Ruggs III | 3 | 4 | 97 | 1 |
| Bryan Edwards | 2 | 4 | 67 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 35/49 | 334 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 9 | 11 | 97 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 14 | 94 | 1 |
| Tim Patrick | 3 | 6 | 42 | 1 |
| Kendall Hinton | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.43