Closing spread
NE -7
Total
43
Model margin
+5.8est.
NE perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Patriots
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.070
- 42.1%Success rate48.6%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- -7.25CPOE+2.93
- 37.8%Third-down rate45.5%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 1.70Points / drive2.41
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 42–14 since 1999
NE have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-22-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 20/32 | 202 | 1 | 2 |
| Zach Wilson | 6/10 | 51 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 8 | 9 | 67 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 6 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 4 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 1 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 24/36 | 307 | 2 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3/4 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1/1 | 25 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 14 | 106 | 7.6 | 2 |
| J.J. Taylor | 9 | 21 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bolden | 6 | 7 | 79 | 1 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Jakob Johnson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Damien Harris | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| J.J. Taylor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.68
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+5.83