2021 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

13·54

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

NE -7

Total

43

Model margin

+5.8est.

NE perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapPatriots
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.070
  • 42.1%Success rate48.6%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.012
  • 8.7%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -7.25CPOE+2.93
  • 37.8%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.41
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 43–14 since 1999

NE have won 4 straight. Meetings average 41.2 points. NE are 32-23-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6NYJ @ NE19–26NE
2025 · W17NE @ NYJ42–10NE
2025 · W11NYJ @ NE14–27NE
2024 · W8NYJ @ NE22–25NE
2024 · W3NE @ NYJ3–24NYJ
2023 · W18NYJ @ NE17–3NYJ
2023 · W3NE @ NYJ15–10NE
2022 · W11NYJ @ NE3–10NE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–NE
NEQ1 15:00570Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 12:433-4Punt0–7
NEQ1 10:46753Touchdown0–14
NYJQ1 7:211145Missed field goal0–14
NEQ1 1:48736Field goal0–17
NYJQ2 14:10828Touchdown7–17
NEQ2 10:391273Touchdown7–24
NYJQ2 5:29744Turnover on downs7–24
NEQ2 1:551268Touchdown7–31
NYJQ2 0:272-8End of half7–31
NYJQ3 15:00868Touchdown13–31
NEQ3 11:38843Field goal13–34
NYJQ3 7:03640Turnover13–34
NEQ3 4:16432Punt13–34
NYJQ3 2:0348Turnover13–34
NEQ3 1:08543Touchdown13–41
NYJQ4 13:29833Turnover on downs13–41
NEQ4 11:14453Touchdown13–47
NYJQ4 9:10517Punt13–47
NEQ4 6:42983Touchdown13–54
NYJQ4 2:59328Turnover13–54
NEQ4 2:0000End of half13–54

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike White20/3220212
Zach Wilson6/105100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter11373.40
Elijah Moore11919.01
Ty Johnson561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Carter89670
Ty Johnson67650
Corey Davis46471
Jamison Crowder46340
Ryan Griffin12150
Elijah Moore16130
Keelan Cole1260
Denzel Mims1260
Trevon Wesco0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones24/3630720
Brian Hoyer3/47900
Kendrick Bourne1/12510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Damien Harris141067.62
J.J. Taylor9212.32
Mac Jones3196.30
Jonnu Smith155.00
Brandon Bolden200.00
Brian Hoyer3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Bolden67791
Kendrick Bourne44680
Jonnu Smith25520
Nelson Agholor25511
Jakobi Meyers57440
Jakob Johnson22320
N'Keal Harry12280
Hunter Henry24231
Gunner Olszewski11220
Damien Harris2270
J.J. Taylor1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.68
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+5.83