2021 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

27·36

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

TB -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.143EPA / play-0.063
  • 49.9%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.197EPA / dropback+0.003
  • +0.024EPA / rush-0.147
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +1.50CPOE-5.00
  • 48.0%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 2.51Points / drive1.88
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
TBQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:36735Turnover on downs0–0
TBQ1 10:54754Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 8:281175Touchdown7–7
TBQ1 2:39835Punt7–7
NOQ2 13:2259Punt7–7
TBQ2 11:27850Turnover7–7
NOQ2 7:361144Field goal7–10
TBQ2 2:20224Turnover7–10
NOQ2 1:48535Touchdown7–16
TBQ2 0:2716End of half7–16
NOQ3 15:001171Touchdown7–23
TBQ3 9:01875Touchdown14–23
NOQ3 5:333-6Punt14–23
TBQ3 4:26574Touchdown21–23
NOQ3 1:1534Punt21–23
TBQ3 0:16729Punt21–23
NOQ4 12:08730Field goal21–26
TBQ4 8:31575Touchdown27–26
NOQ4 5:441265Field goal27–29
TBQ4 1:4120Opp touchdown27–36
TBQ4 1:244-8Turnover on downs27–36
NOQ4 0:2800End of half27–36

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady28/4037542
Leonard Fournette0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Giovani Bernard23015.00
Leonard Fournette8263.30
Ronald Jones3134.30
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.8121401
Tyler Johnson56650
Cyril Grayson11501
Mike Evans24481
Leonard Fournette35170
O.J. Howard23160
Cameron Brate24150
Jaelon Darden33110
Giovani Bernard1171
Ronald Jones1160
Rob Gronkowski0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian16/2915910
Jameis Winston6/105610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara19613.21
Jameis Winston44010.00
Mark Ingram6274.50
Deonte Harty12222.00
Trevor Siemian221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kevin White11380
Deonte Harty37350
Tre'Quan Smith33331
Garrett Griffin33300
Marquez Callaway35300
Mark Ingram22250
Alvin Kamara34150
Ty Montgomery1240
Adam Trautman2640
Alex Armah1111
Juwan Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.70
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-0.07