2021 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
TB -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.143EPA / play-0.063
- 49.9%Success rate41.1%
- +0.197EPA / dropback+0.003
- +0.024EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.0%
- +1.50CPOE-5.00
- 48.0%Third-down rate36.1%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.51Points / drive1.88
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 28/40 | 375 | 4 | 2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 8 | 12 | 140 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 5 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Cyril Grayson | 1 | 1 | 50 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 4 | 48 | 1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 16/29 | 159 | 1 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 6/10 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 61 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin White | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 3 | 33 | 1 |
| Garrett Griffin | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.70
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.07