Closing spread
SF -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutJ.J. WattDEShoulder· DNP
- OutJames WigginsSKnee· DNP
- OutJonathan WardRBConcussion· DNP
- OutRashard LawrenceDTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableDeAndre HopkinsWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableKyler MurrayQBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableMax GarciaCAchilles· Limited
- LimitedKelvin BeachumTNot injury related - resting player
49ers
- OutJimmie WardSQuadricep· DNP
- OutMaurice HurstDTCalf· DNP
- QuestionableDee FordDEBack· Limited
- QuestionableDeebo SamuelWRCalf· Limited
- QuestionableElijah MitchellRBRib· Limited
- LimitedTrent WilliamsTAnkle
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.085
- 46.8%Success rate45.5%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- +4.19CPOE+1.73
- 45.2%Third-down rate40.6%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.37Points / drive2.30
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:35 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:37 | 1 | 18 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 10:29 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:08 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 4:38 | 10 | 75 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| SF | Q1 0:39 | 7 | 63 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q2 12:25 | 13 | 89 | Field goal | 17–0 |
| SF | Q2 4:02 | 10 | 59 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–7 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 72 | Touchdown | 24–7 |
| SF | Q3 13:33 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 24–7 |
| ARI | Q3 11:52 | 7 | 71 | Touchdown | 31–7 |
| SF | Q3 8:05 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 31–14 |
| ARI | Q3 4:56 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 31–14 |
| SF | Q3 1:08 | 7 | 46 | Punt | 31–14 |
| ARI | Q4 13:02 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 31–14 |
| SF | Q4 10:57 | 7 | 38 | Field goal | 31–17 |
| ARI | Q4 8:23 | 9 | 30 | Punt | 31–17 |
| SF | Q4 3:32 | 3 | 5 | Turnover | 31–17 |
| ARI | Q4 3:03 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 31–17 |
| SF | Q4 1:11 | 5 | 18 | End of half | 31–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 22/26 | 249 | 1 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 1/1 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 21 | 96 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Eno Benjamin | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Streveler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 6 | 91 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 5 | 77 | 1 |
| Antoine Wesley | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 5 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 28/40 | 326 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 101 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 8 | 89 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.02
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.50