Closing spread
NO -7
Total
43
Model margin
+4.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.063
- 41.2%Success rate41.1%
- -0.028EPA / dropback+0.003
- -0.162EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
- +0.85CPOE-5.00
- 38.5%Third-down rate36.1%
- 52.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 1.58Points / drive1.88
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 23/30 | 343 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 5 | 8 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Feleipe Franks | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 6 | 126 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 7 | 8 | 64 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 58 | 2 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 25/41 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 13 | 50 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 6 | 8 | 52 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Marquez Callaway | 3 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.78