2021 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

27·25

Saints

New Orleans

QB Trevor Siemian

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

43

Model margin

+4.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.063
  • 41.2%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.028EPA / dropback+0.003
  • -0.162EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +0.85CPOE-5.00
  • 38.5%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 52.7%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.88
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00746Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:34730Punt0–0
ATLQ1 8:11764Field goal3–0
NOQ1 4:261050Punt3–0
ATLQ2 13:3034Punt3–0
NOQ2 11:28629Turnover on downs3–0
ATLQ2 8:4448Turnover on downs3–0
NOQ2 7:2448Punt3–0
ATLQ2 5:361588Touchdown10–0
NOQ2 0:0600End of half10–0
NOQ3 15:001160Field goal10–3
ATLQ3 9:36781Touchdown17–3
NOQ3 5:131160Field goal17–6
ATLQ4 14:49416Punt17–6
NOQ4 13:04417Turnover23–6
ATLQ4 10:4616Touchdown24–6
NOQ4 10:39866Touchdown24–13
ATLQ4 7:5731Punt24–13
NOQ4 5:26813Touchdown24–19
ATLQ4 4:354-12Punt24–19
NOQ4 2:46543Touchdown24–25
ATLQ4 1:01266Field goal27–25

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan23/3034320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis9131.40
Cordarrelle Patterson9101.10
Matt Ryan581.61
Feleipe Franks231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson661260
Russell Gage78640
Kyle Pitts37620
Olamide Zaccheaus33582
Hayden Hurst23160
Tajae Sharpe11120
Mike Davis1250

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian25/4124920
Taysom Hill2/23300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara13503.81
Mark Ingram9434.80
Alex Armah2126.00
Taysom Hill144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alvin Kamara47540
Tre'Quan Smith34530
Deonte Harty68520
Adam Trautman47470
Kenny Stills25301
Marquez Callaway36251
Mark Ingram55210

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.78