Closing spread
KC -2.5
Total
53.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
LV perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play-0.001
- 51.1%Success rate45.2%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.161
- 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
- +2.81CPOE+1.92
- 52.1%Third-down rate36.8%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.66Points / drive1.87
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. LV are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 35/50 | 406 | 5 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrel Williams | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 8 | 10 | 119 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 9 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 10 | 83 | 2 |
| Byron Pringle | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Marcus Kemp | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Noah Gray | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 25/35 | 261 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 4 | 88 | 1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7 | 9 | 46 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 1 | 38 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 4 | 7 | 24 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.57