2021 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

41·14

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

KC -2.5

Total

53.5

Model margin

-1.6est.

LV perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.140EPA / play-0.001
  • 51.1%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.161
  • 8.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +2.81CPOE+1.92
  • 52.1%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.66Points / drive1.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. LV are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LV
KCQ1 15:00311Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:32623Punt0–0
KCQ1 8:361189Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 2:51310Punt7–0
LVQ1 0:30636Touchdown7–7
KCQ2 12:57853Field goal10–7
LVQ2 8:2446Punt10–7
KCQ2 5:581054Touchdown17–7
LVQ2 1:3937Punt17–7
KCQ2 0:52734Missed field goal17–7
LVQ3 15:00575Touchdown17–14
KCQ3 12:081362Touchdown24–14
LVQ3 7:09363Turnover24–14
KCQ3 5:34866Field goal27–14
LVQ3 0:5733Turnover27–14
KCQ3 0:10756Touchdown34–14
LVQ4 13:11416Punt34–14
KCQ4 11:48775Touchdown41–14
LVQ4 7:391760Turnover on downs41–14
KCQ4 1:45118End of half41–14

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes35/5040650

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrel Williams11433.90
Jerick McKinnon3268.70
Derrick Gore6193.20
Blake Bell133.00
Mecole Hardman133.00
Tyreek Hill122.00
Chad Henne2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce8101190
Darrel Williams991011
Tyreek Hill710832
Byron Pringle45461
Mecole Hardman23270
Demarcus Robinson34230
Marcus Kemp11160
Jerick McKinnon1360
Noah Gray1311

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr25/3526121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derek Carr3186.00
Kenyan Drake4164.00
Josh Jacobs7162.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryan Edwards34881
Hunter Renfrow79461
DeSean Jackson11380
Darren Waller47240
Zay Jones13220
Josh Jacobs55200
Kenyan Drake23150
Jalen Richard1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.8%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.57