Closing spread
LA -3.5
Total
50
Model margin
+1.9est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.082EPA / play+0.085
- 46.6%Success rate45.5%
- +0.183EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.024
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- -0.40CPOE+1.73
- 42.6%Third-down rate40.6%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate74.8%
- 2.32Points / drive2.30
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. SF are 31-23-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/41 | 243 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 11 | 13 | 122 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 5 | 20 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendall Blanton | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 15/19 | 182 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 27 | 91 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jeff Wilson | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 5 | 97 | 1 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
7.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.88