2021 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Colt McCoy

23·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -2.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.079EPA / play+0.042
  • 46.8%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.037EPA / rush+0.026
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +4.19CPOE+4.08
  • 45.2%Third-down rate37.3%
  • 62.3%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 2.37Points / drive2.12
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
SEAQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
ARIQ1 12:141768Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 2:47942Punt7–0
ARIQ2 12:393-1Punt7–0
SEAQ2 10:28636Field goal7–3
ARIQ2 8:231392Touchdown13–3
SEAQ2 1:52654Field goal13–6
ARIQ2 1:05854Missed field goal13–6
ARIQ3 15:00425Field goal16–6
SEAQ3 12:57415Punt16–6
ARIQ3 10:48421Punt16–6
SEAQ3 8:45518Punt16–6
ARIQ3 6:41623Punt16–6
SEAQ3 2:5446Punt16–6
ARIQ3 1:261467Missed field goal16–6
SEAQ4 8:56574Touchdown16–13
ARIQ4 7:051164Touchdown23–13
SEAQ4 2:2058Turnover on downs23–13
ARIQ4 1:1612Punt23–13
SEAQ4 0:1611End of half23–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colt McCoy35/4432820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner21623.01
Colt McCoy6183.00
Eno Benjamin6152.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz89882
A.J. Green47780
Rondale Moore1111510
Antoine Wesley44440
James Conner56370
Christian Kirk25250
Eno Benjamin1150
Darrell Daniels0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2620700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins10363.60
DeeJay Dallas4256.31
Rashaad Penny2199.50
Travis Homer144.00
Russell Wilson221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett451150
Gerald Everett34370
DK Metcalf48310
Will Dissly13160
Colby Parkinson1160
DeeJay Dallas1220
Penny Hart0100
Freddie Swain0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.02
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.72