Closing spread
SEA -2.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.079EPA / play+0.042
- 46.8%Success rate43.8%
- +0.154EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.037EPA / rush+0.026
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- +4.19CPOE+4.08
- 45.2%Third-down rate37.3%
- 62.3%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 2.37Points / drive2.12
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt McCoy | 35/44 | 328 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Colt McCoy | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 6 | 15 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 9 | 88 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 11 | 11 | 51 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 4 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/26 | 207 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 5 | 115 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.02
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.72