2021 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

13·28

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

LAC -2.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapBroncos
  • +0.088EPA / play+0.021
  • 47.4%Success rate44.7%
  • +0.167EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.093
  • 7.5%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.71CPOE+2.34
  • 45.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 68.6%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.55Points / drive1.89
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-25-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–DEN
DENQ1 15:001042Punt0–0
LACQ1 10:5839Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:55845Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 4:3137Punt0–7
DENQ1 3:321170Touchdown0–14
LACQ2 12:461260Turnover on downs0–14
DENQ2 7:0338Punt0–14
LACQ2 4:5358Punt0–14
DENQ2 2:3544Turnover0–14
LACQ2 1:16647Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 0:31324End of half7–14
LACQ3 15:001261Missed field goal7–14
DENQ3 7:5442Punt7–14
LACQ3 6:391552Turnover7–14
DENQ4 14:301075Touchdown7–21
LACQ4 8:54538Opp touchdown7–28
LACQ4 7:28975Touchdown13–28
DENQ4 4:34733End of half13–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert28/4430322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Herbert4369.00
Austin Ekeler12312.60
Joshua Kelley155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen710850
Austin Ekeler68681
Mike Williams48390
Jared Cook25251
Josh Palmer22250
Jalen Guyton23230
Stephen Anderson22180
Joshua Kelley23150
Donald Parham1150
Darius Bradwell0100
Tre' McKitty0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater11/1812910
Drew Lock4/72601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon17834.90
Javonte Williams14543.91
Teddy Bridgewater2105.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Javonte Williams34570
Tim Patrick23260
Jerry Jeudy23250
Courtland Sutton23170
Noah Fant34120
Albert Okwuegbunam12120
Melvin Gordon1250
Eric Saubert1111
Kendall Hinton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+0.35