Closing spread
LAC -2.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.088EPA / play+0.021
- 47.4%Success rate44.7%
- +0.167EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.093
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.71CPOE+2.34
- 45.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 68.6%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.55Points / drive1.89
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. DEN are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 28/44 | 303 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 36 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 10 | 85 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 8 | 68 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Joshua Kelley | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Darius Bradwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 11/18 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 4/7 | 26 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kendall Hinton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.0%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.35