2021 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

7·13

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

45.5

Model margin

-2.8est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapGiants
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.141
  • 46.4%Success rate40.2%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback-0.146
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.133
  • 10.5%Explosive rate5.7%
  • +0.39CPOE-4.62
  • 45.5%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.20
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PHIQ1 13:4130Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:071047Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 6:441054Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 1:05747Missed field goal0–3
PHIQ2 11:4730Punt0–3
NYGQ2 10:45857Punt0–3
PHIQ2 6:1216106Turnover0–3
PHIQ3 15:00535Turnover on downs0–3
NYGQ3 12:481155Touchdown0–10
PHIQ3 6:5020Turnover0–10
NYGQ3 6:023-14Punt0–10
PHIQ3 4:331066Touchdown7–10
NYGQ4 14:5531Punt7–10
PHIQ4 13:53614Punt7–10
NYGQ4 10:161175Field goal7–13
PHIQ4 2:54425Turnover7–13
NYGQ4 1:343-8Punt7–13
PHIQ4 1:11732Turnover on downs7–13
NYGQ4 0:1500End of half7–13

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts14/3112903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts8779.60
Boston Scott15644.31
Miles Sanders9647.10
Quez Watkins133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Gainwell34320
Jalen Reagor27310
Quez Watkins25230
DeVonta Smith24220
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside11130
Boston Scott2380
Greg Ward0100
Dallas Goedert1300
Miles Sanders1100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones19/3020210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley13403.10
Daniel Jones9303.30
Devontae Booker3103.30
Pharoh Cooper133.00
Darius Slayton1-13-13.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay37500
Darius Slayton34400
Evan Engram36370
John Ross22280
Devontae Booker11170
Saquon Barkley45130
Chris Myarick22111
Pharoh Cooper1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%2.6%3.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

41.7%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin-2.76