Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
45.5
Model margin
-2.8est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.141
- 46.4%Success rate40.2%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.146
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.133
- 10.5%Explosive rate5.7%
- +0.39CPOE-4.62
- 45.5%Third-down rate35.9%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate47.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 14/31 | 129 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 15 | 64 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Miles Sanders | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 19/30 | 202 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 13 | 40 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| John Ross | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
41.7%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.76