2021 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

9·48

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 19mph

Closing spread

KC -10

Total

48

Model margin

+5.0est.

KC perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapChiefs
  • -0.001EPA / play+0.140
  • 45.2%Success rate51.1%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.216
  • -0.161EPA / rush-0.024
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.92CPOE+2.81
  • 36.8%Third-down rate52.1%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.66
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4KC @ LV30–27KC
2025 · W18KC @ LV12–14RAIDERS
2025 · W7LV @ KC0–31KC
2024 · W13LV @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W8KC @ LV27–20KC
2023 · W16LV @ KC20–14RAIDERS
2023 · W12KC @ LV31–17KC
2022 · W18KC @ LV31–13KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–KC
LVQ1 15:001-2Opp touchdown0–7
LVQ1 14:43613Punt0–7
KCQ1 11:5633Punt0–7
LVQ1 10:38826Punt0–7
KCQ1 6:01675Touchdown0–14
LVQ1 3:43420Punt0–14
KCQ1 1:35885Touchdown0–21
LVQ2 12:1327Turnover0–21
KCQ2 11:19931Touchdown0–28
LVQ2 6:17325Turnover0–28
KCQ2 4:581027Touchdown0–35
LVQ2 1:401354Field goal3–35
KCQ3 15:001156Field goal3–38
LVQ3 8:251165Touchdown9–38
KCQ3 3:291546Field goal9–41
LVQ4 9:52624Turnover9–47
KCQ4 7:28151Touchdown9–48
LVQ4 7:191058Turnover9–48
KCQ4 1:5600End of half9–48

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr33/4526311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs9242.70
Trey Ragas199.00
Peyton Barber177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hunter Renfrow13141171
Josh Jacobs56460
Zay Jones57250
Bryan Edwards23240
DeSean Jackson12190
Peyton Barber23130
Foster Moreau36130
Trey Ragas2260

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes20/2425820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Gore9667.31
Clyde Edwards-Helaire10373.72
Patrick Mahomes4205.00
Darrel Williams284.00
Mecole Hardman100.00
Chad Henne3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill44760
Mecole Hardman22590
Darrel Williams33311
Byron Pringle11280
Travis Kelce34270
Derrick Gore22230
Josh Gordon2391
Clyde Edwards-Helaire3350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

3.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.98