Closing spread
KC -10
Total
48
Model margin
+5.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.001EPA / play+0.140
- 45.2%Success rate51.1%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.216
- -0.161EPA / rush-0.024
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.92CPOE+2.81
- 36.8%Third-down rate52.1%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate60.0%
- 1.87Points / drive2.66
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 33/45 | 263 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Trey Ragas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfrow | 13 | 14 | 117 | 1 |
| Josh Jacobs | 5 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 5 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Trey Ragas | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 20/24 | 258 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Gore | 9 | 66 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 4 | 76 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 2 | 59 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 3 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Derrick Gore | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Gordon | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.98