2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final / OT

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Patrick Mahomes

34·28

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

KC -3

Total

54

Model margin

+1.1est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapChargers
  • +0.140EPA / play+0.088
  • 51.1%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.216EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.075
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.81CPOE-0.71
  • 52.1%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 60.0%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 2.66Points / drive2.55
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 32–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.6 points. LAC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6LAC @ KC6–22KC
2025 · W15LAC @ KC16–13CHARGERS
2025 · W1KC @ LAC21–27CHARGERS
2024 · W14LAC @ KC17–19KC
2024 · W4KC @ LAC17–10KC
2023 · W18KC @ LAC13–12KC
2023 · W7LAC @ KC17–31KC
2022 · W11KC @ LAC30–27KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–LAC
LACQ1 15:00619Turnover on downs0–0
KCQ1 13:2712103Touchdown7–0
LACQ1 7:34628Turnover7–0
KCQ1 5:18936Field goal10–0
LACQ2 14:481075Touchdown10–7
KCQ2 9:1233Punt10–7
LACQ2 8:11942Touchdown10–14
KCQ2 3:15412Turnover10–14
LACQ2 1:51944Turnover on downs10–14
KCQ3 15:00731Field goal13–14
LACQ3 12:12942Turnover on downs13–14
KCQ3 7:441170Turnover on downs13–14
LACQ3 1:481382Turnover13–14
KCQ4 10:5437Turnover13–20
LACQ4 9:3412Touchdown13–21
KCQ4 9:29575Touchdown21–21
LACQ4 7:441175Touchdown21–28
KCQ4 2:19875Touchdown28–28
LACQ4 1:16519Punt28–28
KCQ4 0:17210End of half28–28
KCOT575Touchdown34–28

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Patrick Mahomes31/4741031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Patrick Mahomes33210.70
Clyde Edwards-Helaire9323.60
Darrel Williams5122.40
Blake Bell133.00
Mecole Hardman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce10131912
Tyreek Hill12131481
Byron Pringle34220
Clyde Edwards-Helaire24180
Mecole Hardman24110
Blake Bell0100
Demarcus Robinson0300
Darrel Williams0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3823621
Keenan Allen0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Jackson13866.60
Austin Ekeler12594.91
Joshua Kelley7213.00
Justin Herbert5163.21
Andre Roberts166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen610781
Mike Williams39490
Jared Cook37320
Austin Ekeler44230
Josh Palmer11150
Justin Jackson11130
Stephen Anderson11120
Jalen Guyton22101
Tre' McKitty1140
Donald Parham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.0%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.07