Closing spread
KC -3
Total
54
Model margin
+1.1est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.140EPA / play+0.088
- 51.1%Success rate47.4%
- +0.216EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.075
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.81CPOE-0.71
- 52.1%Third-down rate45.7%
- 60.0%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 2.66Points / drive2.55
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. LAC are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 31/47 | 410 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 32 | 10.7 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 13 | 191 | 2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 12 | 13 | 148 | 1 |
| Byron Pringle | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Mecole Hardman | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrel Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/38 | 236 | 2 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jackson | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 10 | 78 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 3 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 3 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Tre' McKitty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.0%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.07