2021 · Week 15 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
TB -11.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play+0.143
- 41.1%Success rate49.9%
- +0.003EPA / dropback+0.197
- -0.147EPA / rush+0.024
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -5.00CPOE+1.50
- 36.1%Third-down rate48.0%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 1.88Points / drive2.51
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 13/27 | 154 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 18 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 10 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Callaway | 6 | 9 | 112 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 26/48 | 214 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 49 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 7 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 11 | 29 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.49