2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

9·0

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TB -11.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.063EPA / play+0.143
  • 41.1%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.003EPA / dropback+0.197
  • -0.147EPA / rush+0.024
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -5.00CPOE+1.50
  • 36.1%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.51
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–TB
NOQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
TBQ1 12:45620Punt0–0
NOQ1 10:06860Field goal3–0
TBQ1 5:44521Punt3–0
NOQ1 3:48855Field goal6–0
TBQ2 14:55517Punt6–0
NOQ2 12:3230Punt6–0
TBQ2 11:03930Missed field goal6–0
NOQ2 6:21517Punt6–0
TBQ2 3:37936Punt6–0
NOQ2 0:38212End of half6–0
TBQ3 15:00522Punt6–0
NOQ3 12:0832Punt6–0
TBQ3 10:4238Punt6–0
NOQ3 9:053-2Punt6–0
TBQ3 8:05525Turnover on downs6–0
NOQ3 5:5536Punt6–0
TBQ3 4:27859Turnover6–0
NOQ3 1:0338Punt6–0
TBQ4 14:1639Punt6–0
NOQ4 12:01942Field goal9–0
TBQ4 7:283-10Punt9–0
NOQ4 6:3532Punt9–0
TBQ4 4:59924Turnover9–0
NOQ4 3:406-5Punt9–0
TBQ4 1:06441End of half9–0

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill13/2715400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill11333.00
Alvin Kamara11181.60
Mark Ingram9101.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Callaway691120
Tre'Quan Smith23170
Alvin Kamara26130
Mark Ingram2280
Adam Trautman1240
Ty Montgomery0200
Nick Vannett0100

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady26/4821401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones8637.90
Leonard Fournette9343.80
Ke'Shawn Vaughn3196.30
Tom Brady122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.67490
Tyler Johnson47410
Leonard Fournette77330
Rob Gronkowski211290
Cameron Brate24220
Scott Miller23180
Mike Evans11140
Ronald Jones2280
O.J. Howard0100
Ke'Shawn Vaughn0200
Jaelon Darden0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

1.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

41.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.49