Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+1.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.082
- 43.8%Success rate46.6%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.183
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- +4.08CPOE-0.40
- 37.3%Third-down rate42.6%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.12Points / drive2.32
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/31 | 156 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeeJay Dallas | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 11 | 39 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 6 | 12 | 52 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Rashaad Penny | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/29 | 244 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 18 | 92 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9 | 13 | 136 | 2 |
| Ben Skowronek | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kendall Blanton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.47