2021 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

10·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+1.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapRams
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.082
  • 43.8%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.183
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.089
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +4.08CPOE-0.40
  • 37.3%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.32
  • 1.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 28–24 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. LA are 28-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsLA @ SEA27–31SEA
2025 · W16LA @ SEA37–38SEA
2025 · W11SEA @ LA19–21RAMS
2024 · W18SEA @ LA30–25SEA
2024 · W9LA @ SEA26–20RAMS
2023 · W11SEA @ LA16–17RAMS
2023 · W1LA @ SEA30–13RAMS
2022 · W18LA @ SEA16–19SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–LA
LAQ1 15:001039Field goal0–3
SEAQ1 8:16723Punt0–3
LAQ1 4:021045Turnover0–3
SEAQ2 14:4940Punt0–3
LAQ2 12:531127Punt0–3
SEAQ2 5:4634Punt0–3
LAQ2 4:42743Turnover on downs0–3
SEAQ2 1:56652Field goal3–3
LAQ2 0:1000End of half3–3
SEAQ3 15:001285Touchdown10–3
LAQ3 9:23686Touchdown10–10
SEAQ3 6:31516Punt10–10
LAQ3 3:403-1Punt10–10
SEAQ3 2:1135Punt10–10
LAQ3 1:01983Touchdown10–17
SEAQ4 10:487-6Punt10–17
LAQ4 7:423-5Punt10–17
SEAQ4 5:2548Turnover on downs10–17
LAQ4 3:21418Field goal10–20
SEAQ4 1:51627Turnover10–20
LAQ4 0:4500End of half10–20

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/3115601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeeJay Dallas8415.11
Rashaad Penny11393.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Gerald Everett44600
DK Metcalf612520
Freddie Swain11250
DeeJay Dallas34110
Rashaad Penny2250
Will Dissly1130
Dee Eskridge0400

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford21/2924421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sony Michel18925.10
Darrell Henderson6233.80
Van Jefferson11010.00
Cooper Kupp111.00
Matthew Stafford3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp9131362
Ben Skowronek45420
Sony Michel22230
Van Jefferson22230
Brycen Hopkins1190
Odell Beckham Jr.1370
Darrell Henderson2240
Kendall Blanton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.16
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.47