2021 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jake Fromm

10·34

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -11

Total

41

Model margin

+8.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

1.7%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapEagles
  • -0.141EPA / play+0.061
  • 40.2%Success rate46.4%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback+0.091
  • -0.133EPA / rush+0.025
  • 5.7%Explosive rate10.5%
  • -4.62CPOE+0.39
  • 35.9%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
  • 1.20Points / drive2.39
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 38–20 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W8NYG @ PHI20–38PHI
2025 · W6PHI @ NYG17–34NYG
2024 · W18NYG @ PHI13–20PHI
2024 · W7PHI @ NYG28–3PHI
2023 · W18PHI @ NYG10–27NYG
2023 · W16NYG @ PHI25–33PHI
2022 · playoffsNYG @ PHI7–38PHI
2022 · W18NYG @ PHI16–22PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:503-3Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:1546Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:23613Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:2835Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:2037Punt0–0
PHIQ1 3:16618Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:241134Field goal3–0
PHIQ2 11:41958Missed field goal3–0
NYGQ2 7:0635Punt3–0
PHIQ2 4:50751Field goal3–3
NYGQ2 1:57920Punt3–3
PHIQ2 0:2015End of half3–3
NYGQ3 15:0020Turnover3–3
PHIQ3 14:10531Touchdown3–10
NYGQ3 12:0232Punt3–10
PHIQ3 9:4737Field goal3–13
NYGQ3 7:4836Punt3–13
PHIQ3 6:53557Touchdown3–20
NYGQ3 4:07510Punt3–20
PHIQ3 2:061060Touchdown3–27
NYGQ4 11:40311Opp touchdown3–34
NYGQ4 10:191960Touchdown10–34
PHIQ4 3:50720Turnover on downs10–34
NYGQ4 1:51627End of half10–34

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon17/279311
Jake Fromm6/172501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley15322.10
Devontae Booker6274.50
Jake Fromm3124.00
Mike Glennon2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kadarius Toney49280
Kenny Golladay38220
Devontae Booker44190
Evan Engram45171
Darius Slayton1570
Chris Myarick1260
David Sills1150
Kyle Rudolph0100
Pharoh Cooper0100
Saquon Barkley11-40

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts17/2919920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders7456.40
Boston Scott12413.41
Jordan Howard9374.10
Jalen Hurts273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVonta Smith57801
Quez Watkins33430
Dallas Goedert24280
Jordan Howard24190
Jalen Reagor24150
Kenny Gainwell1160
Miles Sanders1330
Tyree Jackson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +115.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.38
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.58