Closing spread
PHI -11
Total
41
Model margin
+8.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play+0.061
- 40.2%Success rate46.4%
- -0.146EPA / dropback+0.091
- -0.133EPA / rush+0.025
- 5.7%Explosive rate10.5%
- -4.62CPOE+0.39
- 35.9%Third-down rate45.5%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate66.1%
- 1.20Points / drive2.39
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 17/27 | 93 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Fromm | 6/17 | 25 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jake Fromm | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 4 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 5 | 17 | 1 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/29 | 199 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 7 | 45 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 9 | 37 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Quez Watkins | 3 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyree Jackson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.38
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.58