Closing spread
LAC -8
Total
45.5
Model margin
+6.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.021EPA / play+0.088
- 44.7%Success rate47.4%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.075
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.34CPOE-0.71
- 38.3%Third-down rate45.7%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
- 1.89Points / drive2.55
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. LAC are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 18/25 | 245 | 1 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Rypien | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 6 | 7 | 92 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Seth Williams | 1 | 1 | 34 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/31 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 17 | 58 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Justin Jackson | 12 | 41 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 3 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 9 | 44 | 1 |
| Tre' McKitty | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Justin Jackson | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jalen Guyton | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.57