2021 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

13·34

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -8

Total

45.5

Model margin

+6.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChargers
  • +0.021EPA / play+0.088
  • 44.7%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.075
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +2.34CPOE-0.71
  • 38.3%Third-down rate45.7%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate68.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.55
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 33–23 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. LAC are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5DEN @ LAC23–17DEN
2025 · W18LAC @ DEN3–19DEN
2025 · W3DEN @ LAC20–23CHARGERS
2024 · W16DEN @ LAC27–34CHARGERS
2024 · W6LAC @ DEN23–16CHARGERS
2023 · W17LAC @ DEN9–16DEN
2023 · W14DEN @ LAC24–7DEN
2022 · W18LAC @ DEN28–31DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–LAC
LACQ1 15:00841Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 11:49921Turnover on downs0–7
LACQ1 7:0232Punt0–7
DENQ1 6:0645Punt0–7
LACQ1 5:0236Punt0–7
DENQ1 4:1135Punt0–7
LACQ1 3:121369Field goal0–10
DENQ2 11:271074Turnover on downs0–10
LACQ2 5:1838Punt0–10
LACQ2 3:141149Touchdown0–17
DENQ2 0:14232Field goal3–17
DENQ3 15:00522Punt3–17
LACQ3 12:501378Field goal3–20
DENQ3 7:091363Field goal6–26
LACQ4 14:5300Touchdown6–27
DENQ4 14:40728Turnover on downs6–27
LACQ4 11:22352Touchdown6–34
DENQ4 10:18769Touchdown13–34
LACQ4 6:31838End of half13–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock18/2524510
Kendall Hinton1/1100
Brett Rypien0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon10434.30
Javonte Williams14302.10
Drew Lock3103.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant67921
Courtland Sutton35600
Seth Williams11340
Melvin Gordon34290
Kendall Hinton25230
Albert Okwuegbunam2250
Javonte Williams1120
Drew Lock1110
Eric Saubert0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert22/3123720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler17583.41
Justin Jackson12413.40
Justin Herbert420.50
Jalen Guyton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams34631
Austin Ekeler33540
Keenan Allen49441
Tre' McKitty33220
Justin Jackson33200
Josh Palmer35160
Jalen Guyton22100
Stephen Anderson1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.57