2021 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
PHI -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.036
- 46.4%Success rate44.8%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.018
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.39CPOE-0.08
- 45.5%Third-down rate38.3%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
- 2.39Points / drive1.78
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 17/26 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Scott | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 3 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Greg Ward | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Heinicke | 27/36 | 247 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaret Patterson | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 7 | 8 | 61 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Jaret Patterson | 5 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| John Bates | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Dyami Brown | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ricky Seals-Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Williams | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.74