2021 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

20·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Taylor Heinicke

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

PHI -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.036
  • 46.4%Success rate44.8%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback-0.018
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.39CPOE-0.08
  • 45.5%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate59.5%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.78
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:00667Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 11:54851Turnover on downs0–7
WASQ1 6:58958Field goal0–10
PHIQ1 2:001180Touchdown7–10
WASQ2 11:491049Field goal7–13
PHIQ2 5:36630Punt7–13
WASQ2 2:06957Field goal7–16
PHIQ2 0:0100End of half7–16
PHIQ3 15:001480Touchdown14–16
WASQ3 7:213-5Punt14–16
PHIQ3 5:22414Punt14–16
WASQ3 4:12613Punt14–16
PHIQ3 0:49848Field goal17–16
WASQ4 11:41818Turnover on downs17–16
PHIQ4 7:31928Field goal20–16
WASQ4 2:211155Turnover20–16
PHIQ4 0:2400End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts17/2621400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Boston Scott14473.42
Jalen Hurts7446.30
Jordan Howard11262.40
Kenny Gainwell144.00
Jalen Reagor1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert67710
DeVonta Smith36540
Boston Scott44390
Greg Ward22350
Quez Watkins24150
Jordan Howard0100
Jalen Reagor0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taylor Heinicke27/3624701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaret Patterson12574.81
Taylor Heinicke2147.00
Wendell Smallwood4123.00
DeAndre Carter166.00
Jonathan Williams242.00
Dax Milne111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin78610
Cam Sims45480
Jaret Patterson55410
John Bates34350
Dyami Brown11250
Adam Humphries22120
Wendell Smallwood23100
Ricky Seals-Jones1280
Jonathan Williams2370
Dax Milne0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.74