Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
-1.0est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.063EPA / play-0.076
- 41.1%Success rate41.2%
- +0.003EPA / dropback-0.028
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.162
- 7.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -5.00CPOE+0.85
- 36.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.1%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
- 1.88Points / drive1.58
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 7/9 | 107 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 9/15 | 71 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 30 | 146 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 7 | 76 | 1 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 20/33 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Gage | 9 | 13 | 126 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Blake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Qadree Ollison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.4%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.99