2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Taysom Hill

30·20

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

-1.0est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.063EPA / play-0.076
  • 41.1%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.003EPA / dropback-0.028
  • -0.147EPA / rush-0.162
  • 7.0%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -5.00CPOE+0.85
  • 36.1%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 64.1%Red-zone TD rate52.7%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.58
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:001084Touchdown7–0
ATLQ1 8:291035Field goal7–3
NOQ1 3:15959Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ2 13:29640Field goal7–6
NOQ2 10:311062Touchdown14–6
ATLQ2 5:4710Turnover14–6
NOQ2 5:29826Field goal17–6
ATLQ2 1:031-6Turnover17–6
NOQ2 0:52311Touchdown24–6
ATLQ2 0:0200End of half24–6
ATLQ3 15:0037Punt24–6
NOQ3 13:32731Turnover on downs24–6
ATLQ3 10:04737Turnover on downs24–6
NOQ3 6:30313Punt24–6
ATLQ3 3:58456Touchdown24–13
NOQ3 2:491261Field goal27–13
ATLQ4 10:5513Turnover27–13
NOQ4 10:42614Field goal30–13
ATLQ4 7:3630Punt30–13
NOQ4 5:5639Punt30–13
ATLQ4 4:171485Touchdown30–20
NOQ4 0:2100End of half30–20

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Taysom Hill7/910710
Trevor Siemian9/157120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara301464.90
Tony Jones7223.10
Taysom Hill5183.60
Deonte Harty199.00
Trevor Siemian2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tre'Quan Smith57761
Lil'Jordan Humphrey11260
Deonte Harty34240
Adam Trautman11181
Alvin Kamara22160
Nick Vannett11100
Juwan Johnson1251
Ty Montgomery1210
Tony Jones0100
Marquez Callaway0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan20/3321611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis6305.00
Qadree Ollison11919.01
Cordarrelle Patterson4112.80
Matt Ryan122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Gage9131261
Olamide Zaccheaus33470
Hayden Hurst11330
Kyle Pitts2580
Cordarrelle Patterson1110
Tajae Sharpe0200
Christian Blake0100
Qadree Ollison0100
Mike Davis33-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -4.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.4%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.99