Closing spread
ARI -5.5
Total
48
Model margin
+0.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.079
- 43.8%Success rate46.8%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.154
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.037
- 10.1%Explosive rate9.4%
- +4.08CPOE+4.19
- 37.3%Third-down rate45.2%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
- 2.12Points / drive2.37
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/26 | 238 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashaad Penny | 23 | 190 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 98 | 2 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 11 | 58 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Colby Parkinson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 28/39 | 240 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 15 | 52 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 7 | 10 | 84 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 2 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| James Conner | 6 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 4 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Antoine Wesley | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.71