2021 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

38·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -5.5

Total

48

Model margin

+0.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.079
  • 43.8%Success rate46.8%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.154
  • +0.026EPA / rush-0.037
  • 10.1%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +4.08CPOE+4.19
  • 37.3%Third-down rate45.2%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate62.3%
  • 2.12Points / drive2.37
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:002-9Opp touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 14:48575Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 12:2634Punt7–7
SEAQ1 10:56726Punt7–7
ARIQ1 7:251967Field goal7–10
SEAQ2 11:441075Touchdown14–10
ARIQ2 7:41817Punt14–10
SEAQ2 3:401162Field goal17–10
ARIQ2 1:2141End of half17–10
ARIQ3 15:00787Touchdown17–17
SEAQ3 11:0233Turnover17–17
ARIQ3 10:0221Touchdown17–24
SEAQ3 9:25626Punt17–24
ARIQ3 5:5639Punt17–24
SEAQ3 4:35572Touchdown24–24
ARIQ3 1:574-15Turnover24–24
SEAQ4 15:00310Touchdown31–24
ARIQ4 13:151367Field goal31–27
SEAQ4 6:14375Touchdown38–27
ARIQ4 4:341467Field goal38–30
SEAQ4 1:13217End of half38–30

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2623831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashaad Penny231908.31
Russell Wilson451.31
Travis Homer144.00
Tyler Lockett122.00
DeeJay Dallas111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett55982
DK Metcalf511580
Freddie Swain11251
Travis Homer13230
Gerald Everett13200
Colby Parkinson23140

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray28/3924010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner15523.51
Kyler Murray5357.00
Eno Benjamin7314.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz710840
Christian Kirk23430
James Conner66411
Eno Benjamin44250
A.J. Green49230
Antoine Wesley24170
Greg Dortch2250
Jonathan Ward1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.00
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.71