Closing spread
LA -3
Total
46.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play+0.082
- 45.5%Success rate46.6%
- +0.174EPA / dropback+0.183
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.73CPOE-0.40
- 40.6%Third-down rate42.6%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.30Points / drive2.32
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 23/32 | 316 | 1 | 2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1/1 | 24 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 1 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 7 | 107 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 6 | 95 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 21/32 | 238 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Michel | 21 | 43 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 7 | 118 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 6 | 8 | 55 | 2 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53