2021 · CON · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

17·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -3.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Rams wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRams
  • +0.085EPA / play+0.082
  • 45.5%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.174EPA / dropback+0.183
  • -0.024EPA / rush-0.089
  • 10.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.73CPOE-0.40
  • 40.6%Third-down rate42.6%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.32
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999

Meetings average 43.4 points. LA are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1SF @ LA27–7SF
2025 · W10LA @ SF42–26RAMS
2025 · W5SF @ LA26–23SF
2024 · W15LA @ SF12–6RAMS
2024 · W3SF @ LA24–27RAMS
2023 · W18LA @ SF21–20RAMS
2023 · W2SF @ LA30–23SF
2022 · W8SF @ LA31–14SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LA
LAQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
SFQ1 14:0633Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:251064Turnover0–0
SFQ1 6:53637Punt0–0
LAQ1 3:191988Touchdown0–7
SFQ2 8:46480Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 6:101141Missed field goal7–7
SFQ2 1:50636Field goal10–7
SFQ3 15:00930Punt10–7
LAQ3 10:49746Turnover on downs10–7
SFQ3 7:531058Touchdown17–7
LAQ3 1:59760Touchdown17–14
SFQ4 13:30641Punt17–14
LAQ4 9:55848Field goal17–17
SFQ4 6:4930Punt17–17
LAQ4 6:26949Field goal17–20
SFQ4 1:463-3Turnover17–20
LAQ4 1:0900End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo16/3023221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.7263.70
Elijah Mitchell11201.80
Jimmy Garoppolo144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Deebo Samuel Sr.47721
Brandon Aiyuk48690
Elijah Mitchell33500
George Kittle25271
Jauan Jennings2280
JaMycal Hasty1360
Travis Benjamin0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford31/4533721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers13483.70
Sony Michel10161.60
Matthew Stafford581.60
Cooper Kupp1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp11141422
Odell Beckham Jr.9111130
Kendall Blanton55570
Tyler Higbee23180
Van Jefferson2590
Cam Akers1120
Ben Skowronek0100
Sony Michel12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

2.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.45