2022 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Jameis Winston

27·26

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.037EPA / play+0.002
  • 45.5%Success rate45.4%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.109EPA / rush+0.004
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.61CPOE-0.74
  • 40.9%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.97
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00940Field goal0–3
NOQ1 10:4037Punt0–3
ATLQ1 9:1335Punt0–3
NOQ1 7:46577Touchdown7–3
ATLQ1 5:44122Turnover7–3
NOQ1 5:33617Missed field goal7–3
ATLQ1 2:42961Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 12:1237Punt7–10
ATLQ2 10:15628Punt7–10
NOQ2 6:4553Punt7–10
ATLQ2 3:47635Field goal7–13
NOQ2 1:063-7Punt7–13
ATLQ2 0:23239Field goal7–16
NOQ3 15:001044Field goal10–16
ATLQ3 9:15636Touchdown10–23
NOQ3 6:49420Turnover10–23
ATLQ3 5:11531Turnover10–23
NOQ3 3:1134Punt10–23
ATLQ3 1:41951Field goal10–26
NOQ4 12:41475Touchdown18–26
ATLQ4 11:12625Punt18–26
NOQ4 7:05981Touchdown24–26
ATLQ4 3:38828Punt24–26
NOQ4 0:48257Field goal27–26
ATLQ4 0:19415Missed field goal27–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston23/3426920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Taysom Hill48120.31
Alvin Kamara9394.30
Mark Ingram4225.50
Jameis Winston294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry791140
Michael Thomas58572
Juwan Johnson25430
Chris Olave33410
Alvin Kamara3470
Deonte Harty1140
Taysom Hill1120
Mark Ingram1110

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/3321500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cordarrelle Patterson221205.51
Marcus Mariota12726.01
Avery Williams273.50
Damien Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London57740
Olamide Zaccheaus44490
KhaDarel Hodge33380
Kyle Pitts27190
Cordarrelle Patterson35160
Avery Williams1180
Anthony Firkser1260
Parker Hesse1250
Bryan Edwards0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -64.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.67%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.44
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.52