Closing spread
NO -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.002
- 45.5%Success rate45.4%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.109EPA / rush+0.004
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.61CPOE-0.74
- 40.9%Third-down rate41.9%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 23/34 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 81 | 20.3 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 5 | 8 | 57 | 2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 3 | 41 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/33 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 22 | 120 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 12 | 72 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.67%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+1.44
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.52