2022 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

3·21

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TB -13

Total

39.5

Model margin

-2.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.036
  • 44.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback-0.062
  • -0.208EPA / rush-0.005
  • 6.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.30CPOE-4.71
  • 38.1%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.70
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:00510Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:4539Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:59733Punt0–0
CARQ1 6:4539Punt0–0
TBQ1 4:20836Punt0–0
CARQ2 14:481154Punt0–0
TBQ2 7:48818Punt0–0
CARQ2 3:16680Touchdown0–7
TBQ2 0:29430End of half0–7
CARQ3 15:0036Punt0–7
TBQ3 13:53520Punt0–7
CARQ3 11:3632Punt0–7
TBQ3 9:42745Turnover on downs0–7
CARQ3 6:1937Punt0–7
TBQ3 5:0137Punt0–7
CARQ3 4:00377Touchdown0–14
TBQ3 3:111372Field goal3–14
CARQ4 13:38775Touchdown3–21
TBQ4 9:33543Turnover on downs3–21
CARQ4 7:15824Punt3–21
TBQ4 1:0228End of half3–21

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady32/4929000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White6244.00
Leonard Fournette8192.40
Chris Godwin Jr.122.00
Tom Brady111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans915960
Cade Otton45640
Chris Godwin Jr.713430
Russell Gage45390
Ko Kieft11180
Kyle Rudolph1180
Rachaad White1280
Leonard Fournette2370
Scott Miller2260
Jaelon Darden1110

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker16/2217720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman151187.90
Chuba Hubbard9637.01
DJ Moore1-3-3.00
Raheem Blackshear2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore710691
Terrace Marshall Jr.23310
Tommy Tremble11291
D'Onta Foreman22270
Chuba Hubbard23100
Laviska Shenault Jr.1180
Ian Thomas1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -133.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.9%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.30