2022 · Week 7 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -13
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.036
- 44.0%Success rate40.8%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.062
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.005
- 6.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.30CPOE-4.71
- 38.1%Third-down rate31.6%
- 51.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.63Points / drive1.70
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 32/49 | 290 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 9 | 15 | 96 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 5 | 64 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 13 | 43 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Ko Kieft | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jaelon Darden | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 16/22 | 177 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 15 | 118 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 63 | 7.0 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 10 | 69 | 1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 1 | 29 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.9%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.30