Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
41
Model margin
+5.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.036EPA / play+0.002
- 40.8%Success rate45.4%
- -0.062EPA / dropback-0.001
- -0.005EPA / rush+0.004
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- -4.71CPOE-0.74
- 31.6%Third-down rate41.9%
- 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
- 1.70Points / drive1.97
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. ATL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 19/36 | 317 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 26 | 118 | 4.5 | 3 |
| Spencer Brown | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 6 | 11 | 152 | 1 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 4 | 9 | 87 | 0 |
| Stephen Sullivan | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 5 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 20/28 | 253 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Huntley | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 5 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 6 | 67 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Drake London | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.20