2022 · Week 8 · Division

Final / OT

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

34·37

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -4.5

Total

41

Model margin

+5.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapFalcons
  • -0.036EPA / play+0.002
  • 40.8%Success rate45.4%
  • -0.062EPA / dropback-0.001
  • -0.005EPA / rush+0.004
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -4.71CPOE-0.74
  • 31.6%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 59.6%Red-zone TD rate60.2%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.97
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. ATL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–ATL
ATLQ1 15:0020Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:4669Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:2840Punt0–0
CARQ1 9:23518Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 6:50733Punt3–0
CARQ1 2:1435Punt3–0
ATLQ1 1:151074Touchdown3–7
CARQ2 10:131279Touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 4:51517Punt10–7
CARQ2 1:41427Opp touchdown10–14
CARQ2 0:41433End of half10–14
CARQ3 15:00851Field goal13–14
ATLQ3 11:333-2Punt13–14
CARQ3 9:26727Punt13–14
ATLQ3 6:25862Touchdown13–21
CARQ3 1:401075Touchdown21–21
ATLQ4 11:46768Field goal21–24
CARQ4 7:331080Touchdown28–24
ATLQ4 3:06480Touchdown28–31
CARQ4 2:144-7Turnover on downs28–31
ATLQ4 1:3937Field goal28–34
CARQ4 0:36375Touchdown34–34
ATLQ4 0:1210End of half34–34
ATLOT513Turnover34–34
CAROT36Missed field goal34–34
ATLOT755Field goal34–37

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker19/3631711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman261184.53
Spencer Brown6274.50
PJ Walker12020.00
DJ Moore133.00
Raheem Blackshear210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore6111521
Terrace Marshall Jr.49870
Stephen Sullivan12330
Laviska Shenault Jr.56260
Tommy Tremble24170
Ian Thomas1120
D'Onta Foreman0100
Spencer Brown0100
Shi Smith0100

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota20/2825332

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Caleb Huntley16915.70
Marcus Mariota6437.20
Tyler Allgeier14392.80
Olamide Zaccheaus1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Pitts59801
Damiere Byrd36671
Tyler Allgeier33461
Drake London45310
Olamide Zaccheaus11100
Parker Hesse1190
Avery Williams2270
Bryan Edwards1130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.20