AFC West · 2024

Denver Broncos

Record

10-7

Seed

Net EPA

+0.115est.

Efficiency

How this team plays

Percentile against the teams that played this season, computed from play-by-play.

Offence

Higher is better.

EPA / play+0.011
Success rate42.8%
EPA / dropback+0.062
EPA / rush-0.075
Explosive rate9.0%
CPOE+0.58
Third-down rate40.4%
Red-zone TD rate65.1%
Points / drive2.16
Turnover rate1.8%

← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →

Defence

Oriented so that further right is always better.

EPA / play allowed-0.100
Success rate allowed40.3%
EPA / dropback allowed-0.061
EPA / rush allowed-0.177
Explosive rate allowed7.0%
Pressure rate (proxy)26.1%
Sack rate8.3%
Points / drive allowed1.45

← worse in leagueleague averagebetter →

Offensive EPA / play — league shape+0.011 · 52th %ile

Defensive EPA / play allowed — league shape (left is better)-0.100 · 2th %ile

Form

The shape of the season

Rolling four-week EPA per play. The aggregate hides collapses and surges; this shows them.

4-week rolling EPA/play — up is good for both lines.

Offense
Defense (prevented)

Betting profile

Against the number

Settled against closing lines. Descriptive, not predictive.

ATS

12-5

+6.7 vs line

Home

6-2

Away

6-3

As favorite

8-0

As dog

4-5

O/U

11-6

+2.0 vs total

Roster

74 players

48 active. Skill players link through to their fantasy page.

Quarterbacks3

Quarterbacks
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
4	Zach Wilson	QB	25	6'2" 208	3	Brigham Young	INA
8	Jarrett Stidham	QB	28	6'3" 214	5	Auburn	ACT
10	Bo Nix	QB	24	6'2" 217	R	Oregon	ACT

Backs & receivers19

Backs & receivers
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
13	David Sills	WR	29	6'3" 210	5	West Virginia	DEV
14	Courtland Sutton	WR	30	6'4" 216	6	Southern Methodist	ACT
16	Troy Franklin	WR	21	6'3" 187	R	Oregon	ACT
17	Devaughn Vele	WR	28	6'5" 210	R	Utah	ACT
19	Marvin Mims Jr.	WR	22	5'11" 182	1	Oklahoma	ACT
20	Michael Burton	RB	32	5'11" 240	9	Rutgers	ACT
23	Audric Estimé	RB	22	5'11" 227	R	Notre Dame	INA
25	Blake Watson	RB	26	5'9" 195	R	Memphis	INA
28	Tyler Badie	RB	25	5'8" 194	2	Missouri	ACT
33	Javonte Williams	RB	24	5'10" 220	3	North Carolina	ACT
38	Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	25	5'7" 183	1	Youngstown State	ACT
45	Nate Adkins	TE	25	6'3" 252	1	South Carolina	ACT
82	Adam Trautman	TE	27	6'5" 253	4	Dayton	ACT
83	Michael Bandy	WR	28	5'10" 190	3	San Diego	DEV
84	Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	26	6'4" 225	5	Texas	ACT
85	Lucas Krull	TE	26	6'6" 260	2	Pittsburgh	ACT
86	Thomas Yassmin	TE	26	6'5" 251	R	Utah	DEV
87	A.T. Perry	WR	26	6'5" 205	1	Wake Forest	DEV
89	Donald Parham	TE	27	6'8" 237	5	Stetson University	DEV

Offensive line14

Offensive line
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
54	Alex Forsyth	OL	25	6'4" 312	1	Oregon	ACT
60	Luke Wattenberg	OL	28	6'5" 300	2	Washington	ACT
63	Alex Palczewski	OL	25	6'6" 315	1	Illinois	ACT
66	Nick Gargiulo	OL	24	6'5" 327	R	South Carolina	INA
69	Mike McGlinchey	OL	29	6'8" 315	6	Notre Dame	ACT
71	Cameron Fleming	OL	33	6'5" 320	10	Stanford	DEV
72	Garett Bolles	OL	32	6'5" 300	7	Utah	ACT
73	Frank Crum	OL	24	6'7" 315	R	Wyoming	RES
74	Ben Powers	OL	29	6'4" 310	5	Oklahoma	ACT
75	Quinn Bailey	OL	30	6'6" 323	5	Arizona State	RES
76	Calvin Throckmorton	OL	28	6'5" 318	4	Oregon	DEV
77	Quinn Meinerz	OL	27	6'3" 320	3	Wisconsin-Whitewater	ACT
78	Will Sherman	OL	25	6'4" 305	3	Colorado	DEV
79	Matt Peart	OL	27	6'7" 303	4	Connecticut	ACT

Defensive front20

Defensive front
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
0	Jonathon Cooper	LB	26	6'4" 257	3	Ohio State	ACT
15	Nik Bonitto	LB	26	6'3" 238	2	Oklahoma	ACT
40	Justin Strnad	LB	28	6'3" 235	4	Wake Forest	ACT
41	Drew Sanders	LB	25	6'5" 233	1	Arkansas	ACT
42	Zach Cunningham	LB	31	6'3" 238	7	Vanderbilt	ACT
49	Alex Singleton	LB	32	6'2" 242	9	Montana State	RES
52	Jonah Elliss	LB	21	6'2" 246	R	Utah	ACT
53	Andrew Farmer	LB	24	6'4" 250	1	Lane	DEV
55	Cody Barton	LB	29	6'2" 237	5	Utah	ACT
56	Levelle Bailey	LB	25	6'2" 225	R	Fresno State	INA
57	K.J. Cloyd	LB	23	6'2" 228	R	Miami	DEV
90	Jordan Miller	DL	24	6'3" 307	R	Southern Methodist	DEV
91	Matt Henningsen	DL	25	6'3" 291	2	Wisconsin	DEV
92	Dondrea Tillman	LB	26	6'3" 247	4	Indiana, Pa.	ACT
93	D.J. Jones	DL	29	6'0" 321	7	Mississippi	ACT
94	Jordan Jackson	DL	26	6'4" 285	2	Air Force	ACT
96	Eyioma Uwazurike	DL	26	6'6" 285	2	Iowa State	INA
97	Malcolm Roach	DL	26	6'3" 290	4	Texas	ACT
98	John Franklin-Myers	DL	29	6'4" 288	6	Stephen F. Austin	ACT
99	Zach Allen	DL	27	6'5" 281	5	Boston College	ACT

Secondary15

Secondary
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
1	Tremon Smith	DB	28	6'0" 190	6	Central Arkansas	ACT
2	Pat Surtain II	DB	24	6'2" 203	3	Alabama	ACT
6	P.J. Locke	DB	27	5'10" 202	5	Texas	ACT
21	Riley Moss	DB	24	6'0" 193	1	Iowa	ACT
22	Brandon Jones	DB	26	6'1" 205	4	Texas	ACT
26	Devon Key	DB	28	6'0" 210	3	Western Kentucky	ACT
27	Damarri Mathis	DB	25	5'11" 195	2	Pittsburgh	ACT
29	Ja'Quan McMillian	DB	24	5'10" 183	2	East Carolina	ACT
30	Tanner McCalister	DB	24	5'11" 195	1	Ohio State	DEV
31	Kris Abrams-Draine	DB	24	5'11" 178	R	Missouri	ACT
32	Delarrin Turner-Yell	DB	26	5'11" 190	2	Oklahoma	RES
34	JL Skinner	DB	23	6'4" 220	1	Boise State	ACT
35	Reese Taylor	DB	25	5'10" 190	1	Purdue	DEV
36	Quinton Newsome	DB	23	6'1" 180	R	Nebraska	DEV
43	Keidron Smith	DB	26	6'2" 204	1	Kentucky	DEV

Specialists3

Specialists
#	Player	Pos	Age	Ht/Wt	Exp	College	St
3	Wil Lutz	K	30	5'11" 184	8	Georgia State	ACT
9	Riley Dixon	P	31	6'4" 221	8	Syracuse	ACT
48	Mitchell Fraboni	LS	29	6'2" 223	3	Arizona State	ACT

Schedule

18 games

Denver Broncos schedule
Wk	Opponent	Result	Spread	EPA/play
1	@ Seahawks	L 20-26	+6.5	-0.311
2	vs Steelers	L 6-13	+3	-0.240
3	@ Buccaneers	W 26-7	+6	+0.092
4	@ Jets	W 10-9	+7.5	-0.255
5	vs Raiders	W 34-18	-3	+0.018
6	vs Chargers	L 16-23	+3	-0.055
7	@ Saints	W 33-10	-2.5	+0.079
8	vs Panthers	W 28-14	-13	+0.054
9	@ Ravens	L 10-41	+9	-0.148
10	@ Chiefs	L 14-16	+7.5	+0.030
11	vs Falcons	W 38-6	-2	+0.326
12	@ Raiders	W 29-19	-6.5	+0.023
13	vs Browns	W 41-32	-6.5	+0.092
15	vs Colts	W 31-13	-4.5	-0.289
16	@ Chargers	L 27-34	+3	+0.169
17	@ Bengals	L 24-30	+3.5	+0.172
18	vs Chiefs	W 38-0	-10.5	+0.368
WC	@ Bills	L 7-31	+7.5	-0.122