Closing spread
BUF -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
NE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Patriots
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.111EPA / play-0.047
- 49.0%Success rate41.1%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.064EPA / rush-0.082
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +0.35CPOE+0.93
- 51.1%Third-down rate35.3%
- 61.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 2.48Points / drive1.54
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NE lead 39–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.9 points. NE are 31-21-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/33 | 223 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 7 | 9 | 92 | 1 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 5 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| James Cook | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Nyheim Hines | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 7 | 15 | 1 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Dawson Knox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Patriots
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Jones | 22/36 | 195 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mac Jones | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kevin Harris | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyquan Thornton | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Hunter Henry | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15