2022 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Josh Allen

24·10

Patriots

New England

QB Mac Jones

Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 35°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

BUF -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

NE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Patriots

Win probability

  • Patriots
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Patriots winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapPatriots
  • +0.111EPA / play-0.047
  • 49.0%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.203EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.064EPA / rush-0.082
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.35CPOE+0.93
  • 51.1%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 61.8%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 2.48Points / drive1.54
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NE lead 40–16 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. NE are 32-21-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4NE @ BUF29–26NE
2025 · W15BUF @ NE35–31BUF
2025 · W5NE @ BUF23–20NE
2024 · W18BUF @ NE16–23NE
2024 · W16NE @ BUF21–24BUF
2023 · W17NE @ BUF21–27BUF
2023 · W7BUF @ NE25–29NE
2022 · W18NE @ BUF23–35BUF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–NE
NEQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:57952Field goal3–0
NEQ1 8:02677Touchdown3–7
BUFQ1 4:461060Touchdown10–7
NEQ2 14:56315Punt10–7
BUFQ2 13:131456Touchdown17–7
NEQ2 5:2730Punt17–7
BUFQ2 4:0432Punt17–7
NEQ2 2:5533Punt17–7
BUFQ2 2:03626Turnover17–7
NEQ2 1:20729Missed field goal17–7
BUFQ2 0:1010End of half17–7
BUFQ3 15:00743Punt17–7
NEQ3 11:45731Punt17–7
BUFQ3 8:261594Touchdown24–7
NEQ4 14:31418Punt24–7
BUFQ4 12:10626Punt24–7
NEQ4 7:381860Field goal24–10
BUFQ4 1:5300End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Allen22/3322320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Cook14644.60
Devin Singletary13513.91
Josh Allen8202.50
Nyheim Hines2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs79921
Isaiah McKenzie55440
James Cook66410
Nyheim Hines12210
Gabe Davis27151
Khalil Shakir11100
Devin Singletary0200
Dawson Knox0100

Patriots

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mac Jones22/3619510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rhamondre Stevenson10545.40
Mac Jones372.30
Kevin Harris1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyquan Thornton23310
Rhamondre Stevenson68240
Jakobi Meyers35220
Nelson Agholor23170
DeVante Parker24160
Kendrick Bourne12150
Hunter Henry25130
Jonnu Smith2260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Patriots; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.15