2012 · Week 9

Final

Bills

Buffalo

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

9·21

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -11

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

1.5%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bills

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Bills

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsBills wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Billsedge mapTexans
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.069
  • 42.3%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.046
  • 10.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -1.57CPOE-0.02
  • 39.8%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.89
  • 3.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

HOU lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BUF @ HOU36–31BUF
2025 · W12BUF @ HOU19–23HOU
2024 · W5BUF @ HOU20–23HOU
2021 · W4HOU @ BUF0–40BUF
2019 · playoffsBUF @ HOU19–22HOU
2018 · W6BUF @ HOU13–20HOU
2015 · W13HOU @ BUF21–30BUF
2014 · W4BUF @ HOU17–23HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBUF–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00416Punt0–0
BUFQ1 12:46617Punt0–0
HOUQ1 9:361024Punt0–0
BUFQ1 4:4039Punt0–0
HOUQ1 2:36477Touchdown0–7
BUFQ1 0:36751Missed field goal0–7
HOUQ2 10:31655Missed field goal0–7
BUFQ2 6:22965Field goal3–7
HOUQ2 1:4233Punt3–7
BUFQ2 0:52547Field goal6–7
HOUQ2 0:0500End of half6–7
BUFQ3 15:0030Punt6–7
HOUQ3 14:27543Touchdown6–14
BUFQ3 12:11756Field goal9–14
HOUQ3 7:41627Punt9–14
BUFQ3 4:3233Punt9–14
HOUQ3 2:551168Touchdown9–21
BUFQ4 11:2532Punt9–21
HOUQ4 10:191160Turnover on downs9–21
BUFQ4 4:31732Turnover9–21
HOUQ4 3:1232Punt9–21
BUFQ4 1:06422End of half9–21

Box score

Individual performances

Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick25/3823900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Spiller6396.50
Fred Jackson6213.50
Ryan Fitzpatrick2147.00
Brad Smith100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Jones69650
C.J. Spiller55630
Scott Chandler35510
Steve Johnson37290
Fred Jackson57140
Dorin Dickerson11130
Trevor Graham2340
Ruvell Martin0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub19/2726820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster241114.61
Justin Forsett671.20
Keshawn Martin111.00
Matt Schaub1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson8101180
Owen Daniels48621
James Casey33490
Kevin Walter23280
Garrett Graham22111
Arian Foster0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +116.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.

Half-point at risk

1.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.96