Closing spread
HOU -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
1.5%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Bills
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.069
- 42.3%Success rate43.9%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.046
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- -1.57CPOE-0.02
- 39.8%Third-down rate38.1%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate59.2%
- 1.58Points / drive1.89
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.4 points. HOU are 7-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bills
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 25/38 | 239 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Spiller | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Jones | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Scott Chandler | 3 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 5 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Dorin Dickerson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Trevor Graham | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ruvell Martin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 19/27 | 268 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 8 | 10 | 118 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 4 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| James Casey | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Bills.
Half-point at risk
1.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96