Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+16.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Brownsedge mapSaints
- -0.206EPA / play+0.030
- 43.1%Success rate44.3%
- -0.257EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.075
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- +10.32CPOE-1.21
- 12.5%Third-down rate47.1%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 1.11Points / drive2.20
- 3.9%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+13.37
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+16.15