Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.067EPA / play-0.031
- 42.8%Success rate41.9%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.202EPA / rush-0.169
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- -0.41CPOE+0.08
- 32.6%Third-down rate43.6%
- 51.2%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
- 1.49Points / drive2.19
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 4–4 since 1999
NO have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. NO are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.12