Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play-0.063
- 48.8%Success rate42.5%
- +0.203EPA / dropback-0.130
- +0.017EPA / rush+0.030
- 6.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.17CPOE-4.20
- 48.7%Third-down rate40.1%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.97Points / drive1.93
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 47.7 points. IND are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.56
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.66