Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play+0.019
- 37.9%Success rate41.9%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.084
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.5%
- -2.61CPOE-0.58
- 31.4%Third-down rate39.3%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
- 1.75Points / drive2.15
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.49