Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+5.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Broncosedge mapPanthers
- -0.378EPA / play+0.130
- 36.0%Success rate47.1%
- -0.442EPA / dropback+0.242
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.106
- 2.0%Explosive rate11.8%
- -7.78CPOE+4.17
- 16.7%Third-down rate44.4%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 0.83Points / drive2.90
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–2 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 3-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.80
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.26