Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.4est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapChargers
- +0.071EPA / play-0.167
- 48.1%Success rate40.0%
- +0.098EPA / dropback-0.087
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.360
- 8.9%Explosive rate5.5%
- +3.16CPOE-6.21
- 43.8%Third-down rate25.0%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.80Points / drive1.39
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.24
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.42