Closing spread
HOU -4.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.231
- 43.4%Success rate35.9%
- +0.138EPA / dropback-0.210
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.262
- 8.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- +2.27CPOE-4.44
- 37.8%Third-down rate34.6%
- 60.4%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 2.19Points / drive1.17
- 0.7%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 6–5 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. LAC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.97
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.31