Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play+0.071
- 46.8%Success rate46.2%
- +0.227EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.080
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +3.79CPOE+4.76
- 49.4%Third-down rate41.4%
- 71.6%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 2.62Points / drive2.06
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment+2.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.68