Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.8est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapRavens
- +0.310EPA / play+0.209
- 59.3%Success rate46.9%
- +0.731EPA / dropback+0.316
- -0.053EPA / rush+0.101
- 16.7%Explosive rate10.9%
- +22.32CPOE+4.80
- 55.6%Third-down rate37.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 3.76Points / drive3.13
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.7 points. BAL are 7-7-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.82