2026 · Week 9
Scheduled
Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
-0.3est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play-0.005
- 48.7%Success rate41.2%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.123
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.50CPOE+2.73
- 44.3%Third-down rate32.2%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 2.15Points / drive1.92
- 2.2%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.34