Closing spread
NYG -1.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
-4.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.027EPA / play-0.086
- 42.9%Success rate37.3%
- +0.118EPA / dropback-0.055
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.144
- 7.8%Explosive rate4.6%
- -2.00CPOE-3.23
- 44.9%Third-down rate36.6%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate77.8%
- 2.15Points / drive1.84
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. PHI are 30-27-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.73
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment-3.11
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-4.18