Closing spread
KC -9.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play+0.104
- 44.6%Success rate46.6%
- +0.118EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.148EPA / rush+0.075
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.0%
- +5.33CPOE+0.11
- 37.1%Third-down rate39.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate52.6%
- 1.91Points / drive2.28
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 6–5 since 1999
KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. KC are 7-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.80