2026 · Week 9

Scheduled

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

—@—

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapBears
  • -0.081EPA / play+0.052
  • 40.9%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.130EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.011EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -2.76CPOE+5.30
  • 40.9%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.27
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 10–10 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W2CHI @ TB17–27TB
2021 · W7CHI @ TB3–38TB
2020 · W5TB @ CHI19–20CHI
2018 · W4TB @ CHI10–48CHI
2017 · W2CHI @ TB7–29TB
2016 · W10CHI @ TB10–36TB
2015 · W16CHI @ TB26–21CHI
2014 · W12TB @ CHI13–21CHI

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.84
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.98