Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+10.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Buccaneersedge mapBears
- -0.081EPA / play+0.361
- 51.8%Success rate53.3%
- -0.168EPA / dropback+0.551
- +0.118EPA / rush+0.143
- 5.4%Explosive rate12.0%
- +14.02CPOE+16.58
- 50.0%Third-down rate71.4%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.44Points / drive4.19
- 7.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 10–10 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.4 points. CHI are 10-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+8.80
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+10.93