Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+0.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapJets
- +0.210EPA / play+0.011
- 49.2%Success rate44.6%
- +0.338EPA / dropback+0.118
- +0.031EPA / rush-0.148
- 13.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- +4.89CPOE+5.33
- 48.3%Third-down rate37.1%
- 70.0%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 3.19Points / drive1.91
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.26