Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+1.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Billsedge mapJets
- +0.300EPA / play+0.126
- 41.8%Success rate48.4%
- +0.597EPA / dropback+0.338
- -0.263EPA / rush-0.038
- 14.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +8.14CPOE+12.84
- 33.3%Third-down rate18.2%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 3.07Points / drive2.08
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BUF lead 29–25 since 1999
BUF have won 5 straight. Meetings average 42.5 points. NYJ are 25-29 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+0.98