Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+11.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapSaints
- +0.130EPA / play+0.030
- 47.1%Success rate44.3%
- +0.242EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.075
- 11.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- +4.17CPOE-1.21
- 44.4%Third-down rate47.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.90Points / drive2.20
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.22
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.44