Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Panthersedge mapSaints
- +0.019EPA / play-0.031
- 41.9%Success rate41.9%
- +0.072EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.169
- 8.5%Explosive rate6.1%
- -0.58CPOE+0.08
- 39.3%Third-down rate43.6%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
- 2.15Points / drive2.19
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.40
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.82