Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapBrowns
- +0.071EPA / play-0.206
- 48.1%Success rate43.1%
- +0.098EPA / dropback-0.257
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.119
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.16CPOE+10.32
- 43.8%Third-down rate12.5%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.80Points / drive1.11
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.52
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.30