Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+2.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Texansedge mapBrowns
- +0.031EPA / play-0.040
- 43.4%Success rate42.7%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.175
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- +2.27CPOE-1.22
- 37.8%Third-down rate32.8%
- 60.4%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.19Points / drive1.65
- 0.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. CLE are 5-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.45