Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-16.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapTitans
- +0.310EPA / play-0.141
- 59.3%Success rate44.0%
- +0.731EPA / dropback-0.152
- -0.053EPA / rush-0.096
- 16.7%Explosive rate4.0%
- +22.32CPOE+0.39
- 55.6%Third-down rate33.3%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 3.76Points / drive0.99
- 0.0%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-19.39
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin-16.85