Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Jaguarsedge mapTitans
- +0.117EPA / play-0.124
- 46.8%Success rate40.2%
- +0.227EPA / dropback-0.123
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.9%Explosive rate6.3%
- +3.79CPOE-0.37
- 49.4%Third-down rate34.7%
- 71.6%Red-zone TD rate47.4%
- 2.62Points / drive1.42
- 1.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin-1.12