Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+20.1est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapRavens
- -0.167EPA / play+0.209
- 40.0%Success rate46.9%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.316
- -0.360EPA / rush+0.101
- 5.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- -6.21CPOE+4.80
- 25.0%Third-down rate37.5%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 1.39Points / drive3.13
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+17.64
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+20.10