Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+4.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Chargersedge mapRavens
- -0.209EPA / play+0.071
- 36.9%Success rate46.2%
- -0.191EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.080
- 6.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- -5.83CPOE+4.76
- 33.8%Third-down rate41.4%
- 59.2%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.22Points / drive2.06
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 10–4 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 41.9 points. BAL are 9-5 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.82
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.28