Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+18.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapCardinals
- -0.226EPA / play+0.139
- 43.3%Success rate48.6%
- -0.270EPA / dropback+0.270
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.044
- 6.7%Explosive rate5.6%
- -4.74CPOE+4.61
- 22.2%Third-down rate46.2%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate40.0%
- 0.69Points / drive2.35
- 3.3%Turnover rate0.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+16.39
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+18.61