Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Ramsedge mapCardinals
- +0.047EPA / play-0.007
- 48.7%Success rate44.1%
- +0.094EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.072
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.2%
- +0.50CPOE+0.66
- 44.3%Third-down rate39.0%
- 66.5%Red-zone TD rate52.3%
- 2.15Points / drive1.94
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.93