Closing spread
—
Total
—
Model margin
+3.2est.
IND perspective
Push chance
—
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapColts
- -0.049EPA / play-0.063
- 39.8%Success rate42.5%
- -0.005EPA / dropback-0.130
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.030
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -6.93CPOE-4.20
- 40.9%Third-down rate40.1%
- 58.0%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.79Points / drive1.93
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.02
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.24