Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-2.4est.
IND perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Dolphinsedge mapColts
- -0.242EPA / play-0.225
- 34.5%Success rate42.6%
- -0.183EPA / dropback-0.409
- -0.399EPA / rush+0.116
- 10.9%Explosive rate13.0%
- -8.85CPOE-5.06
- 20.0%Third-down rate30.0%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 1.18Points / drive1.99
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.60
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.38