Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-9.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge mapPackers
- +0.055EPA / play-0.181
- 37.7%Success rate38.2%
- +0.208EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.125EPA / rush-0.438
- 3.3%Explosive rate13.2%
- -4.89CPOE-9.65
- 57.1%Third-down rate25.0%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate33.3%
- 2.90Points / drive1.91
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-12.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-9.81