Closing spread
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Total
—
Model margin
+1.1est.
GB perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Vikingsedge mapPackers
- -0.099EPA / play+0.010
- 36.7%Success rate40.0%
- -0.029EPA / dropback+0.142
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.266
- 7.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.39CPOE-1.28
- 38.6%Third-down rate36.3%
- 46.3%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.65Points / drive1.96
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.12